The best conservatives can do to present the Obama administration as somehow failing, is from the pressures of the jobs situation, double digit unemployment, and the health care debate, which has droned on for nearly a year, and a final bill that will probably be so watered you can drop it on the California wildfires. Not withstanding, Barack Obama’s numbers have been essentially unchanged for three months now even under those circumstances. However, should Congressional Democrats be panicking right about now? It’s too early. Should they be nervous? Maybe.

There’s still a long way to go before next year’s midterms, and a whole three years until the 2012 election. In addition, Congress is getting a much better approval rating now than they were in August when the Republicans had a free month to shit on the Democrat’s Health Care plans.

Once Health Care is out of the way in December (maybe early 2010?), the time between the next election in November will be enough for a strong jobs package and more stronger financial & banking regulation, tapping straight into the populist majority opinion and putting the Republicans in an even more awkward position. To kick off 2010, one of the best things the Republicans can do to hurt their numbers is to filibuster the Health Care Bill. This is certainly a case of the threat being far more ominous than the actual event. Doesn’t Machiavelli warn that once one goes to the extent of their power they no longer have it? A filibuster of health care legislation would be an admission that the GOP has no more options in its arsenal of opposition. The bill would still become law of course, as did Civil Rights following Strom Thurman’s 24+ hour long filibuster, but the Republicans would be seen as the obstructionists they truly are, without any alternative plan of their own, and wasting the people’s time & business, while the Democrats would be seen as fighting for the American people. The advantage goes to the Democrats if there is a GOP filibuster of Health Care Reform, which is arguably the most important domestic legislation since Social Security. And it will be seen live on C-Span.

In a Republican Party hoping to energize a rebound in 2010, having failed to stop Health Care Reform, Climate Control legislation, declining unemployment and possibly a few extra civil rights legislation like DADT & DOMA, it’ll be an uphill battle to even position themselves as competitive by November. Course this is where Palin comes in and why the teabaggers are so galvanized. Palin now represents her Party’s future — and the greatest danger it faces. Her intimate bond with the Republican grassroots has made her the indispensable woman, even if she provokes a visceral sense of revulsion from many independents and moderates. Other Republican frontrunners like former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty have a debilitating problem to face in any race for the presidency: they are now viewed as inauthentic candidates by the movement — cardboard men in suits who are only pantomiming appeals to cultural resentment.

Max Blumenthal summarizes it up perfectly in his essay on “How Sarah Palin Made Herself Indispensable While Destroying the Republican Party“:

[In addition, primary candidates will have an even harder time criticizing her to make their case.] Palin is so well positioned as the darling of the movement that any criticism of her would be experienced by believers as a personal attack on them. In this way, their identification with her through the politics of personal fear is complete. Any Republican primary challenger assailing Palin will be seen as victimizing her, as channeling the attacks of the liberal elites, and possibly as having a secret liberal agenda. On the other hand, to embrace her is to risk losing the great American center.

For the 2010 mid-term elections, Palin’s endorsement is already a coveted commodity — as Mark Kirk’s desperate bid to secure it demonstrates. The more she is attacked, the more the Republican base adores her. As she sets out on her book tour, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune only propel her forward. Her influence on a party largely devoid of leadership is expanding. If she doesn’t prove to be the Party’s future queen, she may have positioned herself to be its future king-maker — and potentially its destroyer.

Go, Sarah, Go! You betcha! Also!

2010 elections | filibuster | health care | Obama | Palin | tea-baggers | unemployment